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Turkish future predicament, update August 2017

August 1, 2017

Turkish future predicament, update August 2017

by Lushfun

It is becoming obvious that once Kurdistan becomes independent there will be a conflict with Turkey that is internationalized. Ergo, what has been a slow but fairly successful suppression of Kurds inside Turkey will become a multi-state conflict with Kurds gaining recognition through extra-territorial sovereignization. Turkish government does not understand that once this occurs it will not be able to continue the current policy due to pressure from its “allies” to come to terms with the new reality.

Why is the question?

If one looks at the current tribulations in the U.S. – Turkish relationship and the EU – Turkish relationship, one realizes that the give and take is mutual. Both the U.S. and EU cannot influence or overcome Turkish interests with their own, furthermore Turkey essentially leverages said influence for it’s own ends to manipulate in the dichotomy between them. As time went on positions of EU and U.S. on Turkey and the region adjoining it became similar. For one the discipline expected out of Turkey being part of NATO and in partnership with the EU to a degree, never quiet materialized. This did not mean that Turkey was supposed to be subservient to the other parties, but it did have to match some expectations in regards to not blackmailing them in the Incirlik saga, and in certain other ways. Military cooperation and alliances require robust understanding that allies will not cut off links during the actual activities of said alliance. While Turkey can be understandably upset at Syrian outcomes, it did sign up for whatever the interventionist ideas were pushed between parties behind closed doors. It is now challenging the ramifications of negative outcomes by defecting in a way to limit them.

NATO suspension and ramifications for Turkey.

First and foremost is the damage to the arms industry from separation of cooperation from European and U.S. suppliers. Especially in regards to aeronautical parts and anti-air capabilities. Sanctions from EU and U.S. in regards to Turkey may gain traction, not necessarily to modify behavior but to equalize capabilities in the possible Kurdish state conflict between the parties. While one can argue about the possibility of sanctions not being sanctioned by the UN, in reality this is a moot point. The problem is once things spiral into this direction other grievances in Europe will spring forward. Ergo, issues of Northern Cyprus, immigration, market access, and so on. It is very likely that the access to funds will be the primary venue where things will start out.

What could go wrong?

The problem in recognizing a Kurdish state is the borders it will submit to the UN for said recognition. If those borders overlap with Turkey and other actors in the region it would essentially mean that those whom recognize the Kurdish state, expect modification of those borders in some fashion. While one can think of reasons for the state to be limited to Iraq and Syria, there are probabilities for maximizing the claim since recognition from key actors U.S. and EU will be forthcoming.

Referendum for Kurds is set for 25th of September just for reference.

Be well, reader.




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